The Middle East is on the brink of a major war

But the one side that escalation likely suits is Netanyahu and the far right in Israel because:

* For Netanyahu it buys him time to overcome domestic legal and political issues;

* Long term Israel wants to take out Iran's nuclear threat which it views as existential to its very survival;

* Israel realises that with Iran/Hezbollah not wanting an all out war, it has escalation dominance - it’s a free hit for Israel, and what is the downside? Escalation gives it an opportunity to massively downgrade Hezbollah’s military capability at a minimum, and the worst case is an opportunity to launch attacks (with the U.S.) to degrade Iran’s nuclear capability.

* Politics in the US provides a window for escalation for Netanyahu as a weak Biden administration, facing a difficult election for Harris in November, is reluctant to call time on Israel for fear of stirring the religious far right vote further in the US. Netanyahu has already made his preference clear for Trump over Harris - so what’s the downside again for Netanyahu?

* And I guess because the pager attacks have just underscored Israel's military advantage - it has spotted an opening and sees a path to victory or, again, to massively degrade Hezbollah’s military capability (payback for 2006).

The dilemma for the Biden administration is that if they do nothing we will eventually see escalation to the point/actual Israel (US) - Iran war which will have a devastating impact on oil prices, global markets, and Harris' election prospects. But if they intervene to call time on Israel's assault on Gaza/Lebanon they will face an uncertain domestic political reaction and calls of being soft on Iran and selling out on Israel. At the moment the Biden administration just looks paralysed with civilians in Gaza and now Lebanon paying a huge price.

Guess Gulf states are also in similar situation - no love lost for Hezbollah or Hamas either, but the scale of the human cost is causing unquiet and concerns over the stability of the Arab street. The irony is the Gulf states have huge leverage to act thru arms sales, oil, and also now power via $10 trillion plus sovereign wealth fund assets - if they seek to use these, which seems unlikely at this stage.

Feels a bit like the Biden administration is sleep walking into a major Middle East war, through its own indecision.

Timothy Ash