Study: by 2050, almost one in four Israelis will be ultra-Orthodox
According to the report, the most recent projections from the Central Bureau of Statistics indicate that by 2050, 24.4 percent of Israelis will be Haredi, while IDI’s own projections put the figure at 22%. Currently, some 14% of Israelis, or 1.45 million people, belong to the community. “The rapid growth of the ultra-Orthodox (Haredi) population is expected to have a dramatic impact on Israel’s economy and society, due to the group’s distinctive patterns of education and employment,” the authors of the report, Dr. Gilad Malach, Dr. Itamar Yakir, and Roe Kenneth Portal, wrote.
Currently, Haredi levels of participation in higher education and in the workforce, especially among ultra-Orthodox men, are significantly lower than those of the non-Haredi Jewish population. Unless trends change, the growth of the Haredi population would mean the overall share of Israelis eligible for matriculation exams and those holding a university degree, as well as Israel’s employment rate, would decrease compared to today.
Currently, the matriculation eligibility rate across the total population stands at 71%, compared to 16% in the Haredi community. If the latter percentage does not improve, by 2050, only 61.5% of Israeli high school-age students will be eligible for matriculation exams. If the Haredim were to close the gap in that field with the rest of the Jewish population, the rate would jump to 83.6%.
At the same time, today, 47.1% of Israelis ages 35-44 hold a bachelor’s degree, compared to 13% of Haredi men and 38% of Haredi women. According to the IDI report, if the rate of degree-holders in the ultra-Orthodox community remains stable, the percentage of Israelis aged 35-44 with a degree in 2050 will be 43.7%.
Finally, if Haredim maintain current trends, the employment rate in Israel will drop to 75.8% from the current 78.1%, while if they begin to join the workforce at rates similar to the rest of the population, it will increase to 79%. “The loss of potential in terms of GDP per capita resulting from the non-integration of Haredim could reach more than 10%, equivalent to approximately 160 billion shekels ($52 billion) in 2023 GDP terms,” Malach, Yakir and Kenneth wrote.
For decades, experts have sounded the alarm about the lack of Haredi economic integration, given that it is Israel’s fastest-growing community, with an average of 6.5 children per Haredi woman. Such fears have come to bear on the military draft following the Hamas-led October 7, 2023, attack, which sparked the longest war in Israel’s history. Ultra-Orthodox men have long been granted a blanket exemption from conscription.
In light of the current security situation, the IDF has said it urgently needs 12,000 recruits due to the strain on standing and reserve forces. Some 80,000 ultra-Orthodox men aged 18-24 are currently believed to be eligible for military service, but have not enlisted, even though the High Court of Justice declared the exemptions illegal in 2024.
A bill currently moving through the Knesset would preserve most of the Haredi draft exemptions and has sparked a national debate. According to the IDI report, Haredim currently constitute 23.5% of those designated for military service, and that share is expected to rise to 25% by 2030, 33% by 2040, and 40% by 2050. “The findings point to an urgent need for a new, equitable ‘social contract’ between the state and ultra-Orthodox society, which would include far-reaching changes in the education system, military enlistment, and the subsidization of the Haredi population,” Malach, Yakir and Kenneth wrote.
“Decreasing the economic incentives for non-integration into Israeli society, as well as conditioning state support on the study of core curriculum subjects, military service, and the full realization of earning capacity, are necessary conditions for achieving the required changes,” they added.
Rossella Tercatin