More Palestinians support Oct. 7 massacre now than five months earlier, recent poll finds

Support in the West Bank for the attacks held steady at 59 per cent, unchanged since a May poll, while backing in Gaza rose by seven points to 44 per cent, with an average of 53 per cent across the two territories. Asked for the most effective means to end the “occupation” and achieve statehood, 41 per cent picked “armed struggle”.

A majority of respondents (62 per cent) said they backed Hamas’s acceptance of President Donald Trump’s peace plan, with greater support recorded in the West Bank (65 per cent) compared to Gaza (56 per cent). Meanwhile, 69 per cent of respondents were satisfied with the prisoners Hamas was able to free from Israeli jails under the truce agreement, including 250 who are serving life sentences for deadly attacks.

However, when asked about the demand that Hamas disarm as part of Trump’s plan to end the war permanently, the largest share of Palestinians, 69 per cent, opposed this, according to the survey.

In addition, 53 per cent expressed opposition to Washington’s plan for Gaza to be led by a technocratic Palestinian committee after the war. If elections were to be held, the majority of the public (63 per cent) said Hamas should not be required to acquiesce to Palestinian Authority chief Mahmoud Abbas’ demand that it accept all Palestine Liberation Organisation obligations, including its recognition of Israel, before participating.

In a runoff PA presidential election, Abbas would receive 27 per cent of the votes, while Hamas’ leader abroad, Khaled Mashaal, would win with 63 per cent if they were the only two candidates, the survey noted. However, the largest share of respondents (39 per cent) expressed their support for Marwan Barghouti, a convicted terrorist, to succeed Abbas as leader of the PA.

If P.A. legislative elections were to be called with the participation of all factions that were part of the most recent vote in 2006, 44 per cent of voters said they would cast their ballot for Hamas and only 30 per cent for Abbas’ Fatah. Forty-one per cent, compared to 40 per cent in May, believe that Hamas is the “most deserving of representing and leading the Palestinian people today,” with respondents’ satisfaction with the Gaza-based terrorist organisation increasing by three percentage points, to 60 per cent.

The Palestinians’ highest satisfaction rate for regional and Arab actors (74%) went to the Iranian-backed Houthis in Yemen, who have launched incessant ballistic missile and drone attacks at the Jewish state during the past months, followed by Qatar (52 per cent) and Hezbollah (50 per cent). However, overall support for Hamas has declined significantly since the start of the war, with overall support across the territories falling from a high point of 75 per cent in June 2024 to 60 per cent in the most recent poll.

Likewise, support for October 7 has dropped to the current 53 per cent from a December 2023 peak of 72 per cent. The IDF has also previously publicly raised concerns about the reliability of the PCPSR’s surveys, suggesting that prior polls have been manipulated to artificially inflate support for the group. The centre has denied these claims and, in its latest release, insisted: “This survey was conducted face-to-face in both the West Bank and Gaza Strip using tablets or phones.

"When each interview is completed, it is automatically sent directly to our server, where only our researchers can access. There is no way for anyone to intercept or manipulate the collected data.”

Akiva van Koningsveld