New report: Temperatures in Israel expected to surpass 55°C by 2100

Historically, temperatures in central Israel—areas like the coastal plain and lowlands—rarely exceeded 45°C. Temperatures nearing 50°C were once-in-a-century events. But new climate models predict that, due to accelerating global warming, such extreme heat could strike every two years by the end of this century.

The findings reinforce troubling trends already observed in Israel: Rising temperatures, prolonged drought and bursts of intense rainfall. Over the past few decades, short-term rainfall intensity in central Israel has jumped by roughly 40%. Forecasters say that trajectory will continue, with heavy downpours increasing dramatically in both frequency and severity.

Take Tel Aviv, for example. A storm dropping nearly two inches of rain in a single hour used to be a once-in-a-century event. In the coming decades, that kind of deluge could happen every five years.

The report is part of a broader national initiative—Government Decision 4079—intended to update Israel’s climate risk assessments. A related government order directed the Meteorological Service, under the Ministry of Transportation, to supply climate data to all ministries and the public as part of national adaptation efforts.

For the first time, Israeli researchers have developed a high-resolution climate reconstruction of recent decades—allowing them to validate modeling before projecting future scenarios. The new approach enables detailed forecasts by region, along with climate indices tailored for sectors like agriculture, energy, infrastructure, and emergency response.

Warming accelerates, especially inland

The data points to unmistakable, rapid warming across Israel. Projections continue the trends observed from 1980 to 2023, with particularly sharp increases in Israel’s inland and mountainous regions.

Floodings in Israel

By 2100, average temperatures in those areas could rise by 8°C to 9°C. Along the coast and in lowland areas, increases of 5.5°C to 6.5°C are expected. Both are considered very high rates of warming.

Climate models project parts of Israel could see temperatures exceed 51°C in the latter half of the century. The highest temperature forecast—around 56°C—is expected in the Hula Valley by the year 2070, far surpassing the country’s historical record highs.

Rainfall totals shrink, but downpours intensify

Annual rainfall across Israel is projected to decline—especially in inland and elevated areas. But paradoxically, short-duration storms are expected to intensify sharply. Rainfall rates during rare, extreme events could rise by 40% or more, particularly in coastal areas.

In the coming decades, areas like the central coastal plain could experience increases of 22% to 35% in heavy rainfall intensity compared to historical baselines. In localized zones, such as Beit Dagan and the Tabor region, spikes could approach 50%.

That means heavier storms in shorter time frames—posing major risks for urban flooding, overwhelmed drainage systems, and erosion.

“Similar trends of rising temperatures coupled with increased short-burst rainfall have been documented globally,” the report’s authors noted. “Warmer air holds more moisture and increases atmospheric instability, which drives more intense rain over shorter durations.”

They added that a 50% increase in rainfall intensity would significantly shorten the return period of extreme events—making once-rare floods far more common.

National planning at a tipping point

Dr. Amir Givati, head of the Israel Meteorological Service, emphasized the report’s urgency for national planning: “This information is critical for every sector—transportation, agriculture, energy, defense, water infrastructure, and more,” he said. “It supports smarter decisions on drainage, flood risk, land use, and even power grid resilience.”

Givati noted that climate change is no longer a distant threat. It is already altering Israel’s environment, with intensifying heat, shifting precipitation patterns, and more frequent weather extremes. “The forecasts for the coming decades point clearly to a climate that is fundamentally different from what Israelis have known.”

Until now, Israeli authorities relied on coarse, global-scale models provided by international research centers—offering low-resolution projections that struggled to capture Israel’s diverse microclimates.

The new Israeli-developed models, created with government funding, offer a breakthrough. They can now project, with regional precision, not only how high temperatures may rise—but also how much rainfall could fall in a single hour. For example: if Tel Aviv used to expect 2 to 2.5 inches of rain per hour in an extreme storm, that number could double to over 4 inches in a single hour within a few decades.

Ilana Curiel